Why Cubans are still fleeing to America. The Economist. (Polémica)

A CURIOUS asymmetry exists across the 90-mile (150km) Straits of Florida that divide Cuba from the United States. This month American businessmen won permission from their government to start plush new ferry services to Cuba for the first time since the United States trade embargo was imposed in 1960. Moving in the other direction are thousands of impoverished Cubans in makeshift boats and rafts, risking their lives to flee the communist island despite a five-month-old thaw in relations with America that both governments hope will bring more prosperity to Cuba. In the first quarter of the year the number of Cuban migrants arriving in America more than doubled, and 2,460 have been apprehended at sea since October. Why this gap between rhetoric and reality?

The exodus is probably being stirred by American immigration policy itself—or more precisely by the fear that it will change if rapprochement continues. As a legacy of the strident anti-communism of past American policy towards Cuba, Cuban immigrants to the United States are treated more leniently than those of other countries. If they touch dry land in America, they can automatically apply for permanent residency and, eventually, citizenship. But in order to prevent a flotilla of Cuban “boat people” (such as the Mariel boatlift of 1980), the Coast Guard returns almost all those it catches at sea to Cuba. The American authorities say there are no plans to change the policy, known colloquially as “wet foot, dry foot”. But the government of Raúl Castro blames it for encouraging illegal migration and says it should be stopped.

But in fact it is the Castro regime that bears final responsibility for the flood of migrants, because its policies—though admittedly exacerbated by the embargo—have produced the poverty and crippling lack of opportunity in Cuba that motivates many migrants in the first place. A series of reforms adopted since 2011 have allowed limited private enterprise on the island, and have sought to spur foreign investment. Yet a gap between the haves and have-nots is growing. As few as one-tenth of the labour force have their own businesses; the rest work in state-owned firms earning pitiful wages. State rations of basic staples like rice and beans add a meagre supplement to incomes, leaving remittances as the only meaningful option for households hoping to increase their earnings. Remittances from abroad are currently estimated at about $3 billion a year. Cubans who make the perilous journey to America are often on a survival mission for their families back home.

Cuba needs to accelerate its economic transformation

In 2013 the Cuban government unofficially acknowledged the need for an escape valve for its citizens when, for the first time, it made it legal for any Cuban to travel abroad. It has also sought to bolster its economy by sending its highly trained (though chronically underpaid) medical staff to allies such as Venezuela, in exchange for oil. But Venezuela’s economy is in a tailspin because of weak oil prices, and neighbours such as Mexico are increasingly reluctant to offer travel visas to Cubans, lest they use the country as a transit point to America. In short, the Cuban economy is not creating new opportunities rapidly enough to satisfy struggling Cuban households. Further opening may eventually lead to a sharp reversal in flows, as Cuban ex-pats return home to participate in an investment-driven boom. Until then ambitious Cubans will place their bets on the economic powerhouse to the north.